Russian president Dmitiri Medvedev on 27th March proposed  putting together a national anti-terror committee to consider "officially" ending Russia's war in Chechnya.

"I believe there is a need to consider the question of the legal regime now in force in Chechnya under the anti-terrorism operation," Medvedev said at a meeting with Federal Security Service (FSB) director Alexander Bortnikov.

This may imply a review of tight restrictions in force for the past decade, such as curfews, roadblocks, periodic searches and detention rules exercised by the iron fist rule of the Moscow installed Kadyrov regime.

Sources in Russia say that the Kremlin will also most likely lift the legal mandate on military operations in Chechnya in the next few weeks. This could mean that, with an official end to the war, Russia might start pulling back nearly half of its 50.000 troops from Chechnya this year, leaving the republic in the hands of Kadyrov's Chechen security forces. Most likely these Russian troops will be re-deployed in neighbouring Daghestan, Abkhasia, South-Ossetia and Stavropol.

Ramzan Kadyrov welcomes the signals: "It should be viewed as an acknowledgement of the fact that the problem of fighting illegal armed forces has finally been solved in the Chechen republic" he said in a statement.

However, it should be very clear that Moscow in its shift of strategy has made a careful analysis of Ramzan Kadyrov's role in future.  He is Putin's appointment, kept in strict control by Putin's right-hand man Vladislav Surkov. Any movement of power away from these two men would hit Ramzan Kadyrov instantly. Ramzan himself realizes he has the uncomfortable position of sitting on top of a volcano, and what may erupt and hit him is a fierce internal power struggle inside the Kremlin.

Dmitri Medvedev increasingly asserts his position as Russia's real boss and his intentions for Ramzan Kadyrov are less clear. Upon taking presidential office last year he made the following statement: "Every people have the right to self-determination." Medvedev may just intend to do what Putin never intended - to give Chechnya, and also Russia, a real peace. It can only come about when the Chechen people are allowed to freely and fairly elect their own governance, and it is more than doubtful that their choice would include Ramzan Kadyrov!

Ivar Amundsen

Director, Chechnya Peace Forum