When Victor Yushchenko's Orange revolution overturned the Moscow orchestrated fraudulent election in Ukraine there was real hope for democracy and the beginnings of a new dawn. Sadly five years on the political realities are that the country is in total chaos, politically and economically. So where did it all go wrong?
As in many other countries the recession is hitting hard and the economy is in free fall. National debt is the fourth biggest in the world, industrial output down 30 per cent last year, inflation at 25 per cent and the currency - the hryvna - depreciated by almost 50 per cent in the last year. Exports are down 40 per cent and GDP is expected to fall 11 per cent in 2009. The country is bankrupt and must frantically borrow to settle current debts and interests. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has in principle approved a loan of $16 billion on very strict and prescriptive conditions. This week a second tranche of this loan, $2.8 billion was approved upon the conditions of balancing the budget, something the Ukraine government has not yet delivered.
The country is totally dependent on Russian gas supplies and has until now been favoured with special prices. However, Russia has embarked upon the use of energy supplies for political ends and raised prices in January, causing the now annual disruption that affected most of Eastern Europe for weeks. To the Russians western-minded Victor Yushchenko is a demon of almost the same calibre as Georgian president Saakashvili. The Kremlin makes no secret it wants a more loyal Ukraine in its neighbouring sphere of interest. Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko has recently met with Putin in Moscow and appealed for another loan of $5 billion, without receiving an answer as yet. Add to this that the price of steel, the country's largest export item has shrunk dramatically because of the general decline in building construction across the world, and you have an Ukraine economy that is fundamentally broken and without scope for repair - even with loans from the IMF, Russia or the West, to the extent they are available in the current economic climate.
The political battle in the 2004 election was between the pro-West Victor Yushchenko and the pro-Russian Victor Yanukovich. In the end Yuschenko came out on top as president to the great relief of Western nations and equal dismay in Moscow. Yulia Timoshenko became prime minister but has been in endless battles with her own president. Corruption is rampant and pretty evenly distributed across the political spectrum. The Parliament - the Rada - of 450 members resembles more of a trade union looking after members' own interests rather than being a national assembly for the Ukraine people.
Ukraine has a population of 46 million, 8 million of them are ethnic Russians. Crimea was handed from Russia to Ukraine in 1954 and is today the only autonomous republic in Ukraine. The Ukraine population is divided on whether they align themselves with the geopolitical backdrop in the East or West. Issues concerning the economy, energy, corruption or possible Nato membership often spark unpredictable responses.
With the political infighting and a dysfunctional system that fails to serve the people, Russia knows how to take advantage of Kiev's political and economic weakness - they also know they have time on their side. It is very possible that the game plan is to ensure Ukraine becomes divorced from its Western leanings by drifting firmly into Russia's sphere of influence. What is also worrying is that this could open up the possibility of a division of the country resulting in a Western Ukraine and an Eastern Ukraine, east of the Dnieper river.
It will require radical political turnaround in Ukraine and some real sophisticated diplomacy from the West to protect Ukraine's territorial integrity from the immense pressure that is already there. As for political leaders in Ukraine, Victor Yushchenko, the current president now scores about 3 per cent in the polls. His time in Ukraine politics is probably soon to be over. My guess is the battle will be between Victor Yanukovich and a new rising star: Arseniy Yatsenyuk an economist and lawyer, who has a background as foreign minister and speaker in the Parliament. Should he win the presidency, he may join forces with Yulia Timoshenko as prime minister.
In April the Ukraine parliament voted overwhelmingly to hold elections on 25 October 2009. This was contested by president Yushchenko, and on 13 May 2009 the Ukraine Constitutional Court rejected the October date and ruled that the next presidential election can only take place after mid January 2010. Ukraine's future continues to become increasingly uncertain.
Ivar Amundsen
Director, Chechnya Peace Forum |
