It is almost ten years since Putin captured power in Russia, a period in which he both duped the Russian people into acquiescence and then bought their support. But there are signs that the myth of economic stability in Russia is beginning to crumble and the Russian people are starting to brave the wrath of the Kremlin by protesting their disapproval of Putin and the administration he and ‘the Siloviki' of the FSB has put in place. Protests which started in Russia's far east in cities such as Vladivostock are now spreading towards European Russia creating a growing problem for Putin and Medvedev as they try to quarantine the political unrest in the country's distant regions. As long as Putin could control the Russian economy by exploiting the county's carbon resources, he could keep a lid on criticism of the critical decline in the level of human rights, the quality of democracy, and the sovereignty of the judiciary. But with the global downturn, Putin's bargaining chip is weakening.

The political unrest in Russia was triggered by a law which encapsulates Putin's detachment from the Russian people. Earlier this year he imposed an import tariff on Japanese car imports, forcing Russians to sacrifice their reliable and cheap Japanese cars for more expensive and less reliable Russian alternatives. Putin's logic was that the tariff would boost domestic car sales and revive the failing industry. In reality it proved to be the straw which broke the camel's back for many Russian's who blame the Kremlin for the downturn in the Russian economy which has seen factories go bust, leading to rising unemployment, plummeting living standards and a 9.5% slump in Russia's GDP in the first quarter of this year.

Resting on Russia's abundance of natural resources and not diversifying Russia's economy worked for almost a decade but Putin's mishandling of the economy is beginning to come clear. His Faustian pact, which consisted of allowing a small group of oligarchs to become rich off Russia's resources as long as they left Putin and his political allies from the FSB to turn the county into an authoritarian state. With the economy faltering however, the status quo may just be changing. Russians have seen the democratic spring of the late nineties slowly but surely replaced by an ever-eroding level of human rights and democracy. The Russian people may have begrudgingly put up with this situation as long as economic stability was maintained but with the financial state of the country weakening people are starting to question the monopoly the Kremlin has over all aspects of their lives.

But Putin and the siloviki have a tried and tested method when it comes to dealing with such crises. No doubt a skapegoat will be found, some of the less well-connected oligarchs will probably be blamed for the economic mess and forced to fall on their sword or worse still become an enemy of the state consigned to the fate that has already befallen Mikhail Khodorkovsky. While the world's biggest country has declined around them, the FSB elite around Putin have become experts in protecting their own interests and locking down internal protest. That is why we in the West must continue to make our voice heard in order to add encouragement to those brave enough to speak out against Putin in Russia and to ensure that Putin knows that while he may be able to extinguish dissent at home there will always be distant voices scrutinizing his regime.

Ivar Amundsen
Director, Chechnya Peace Forum